A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
